Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Anthony O'Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow(auth.), Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield(eds.)This is achieved by:
- Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research.
- Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities.
- Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs.
- Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.
- Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.
An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.Content:
Chapter 1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement (pages 1–24):
Chapter 2 The Elicitation Context (pages 25–31):
Chapter 3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty (pages 33–59):
Chapter 4 The Elicitation of Probabilities (pages 61–96):
Chapter 5 Eliciting Distributions – General (pages 97–119):
Chapter 6 Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution (pages 121–151):
Chapter 7 Eliciting Distributions – Uncertainty and Imprecision (pages 153–160):
Chapter 8 Evaluating Elicitation (pages 161–177):
Chapter 9 Multiple Experts (pages 179–192):
Chapter 10 Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion (pages 193–216):
Chapter 11 Guidance on Best Practice (pages 217–222):
Chapter 12 Areas for Research (pages 223–226):